Myanmar’s military government has officially withdrawn the state of emergency that had been in place since the February 2021 coup, marking what it calls a transition into a “second chapter.”
Under Myanmar’s 2008 constitution, the end of emergency rule requires elections to be held within six months, effectively setting a deadline of late January 2026, though the junta has already signaled plans for a December 2025 vote.
This move is largely aimed at projecting a return to constitutional order while maintaining firm military control, analysts say.
By lifting the emergency, they said, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing is attempting to present an image of normalcy and stability, but real power remains concentrated in the military. Key opposition figures, including Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD), are barred from contesting under repressive election laws that favor the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The National Unity Government (NUG), ethnic armed organisations, and pro-democracy forces have already rejected the planned elections, labeling them illegitimate.
Resistance forces continue to hold significant territory, fueling a conflict that shows no signs of abating.
Internationally, skepticism dominates.
Western governments and rights groups see the withdrawal of emergency rule as a procedural maneuver rather than genuine reform, while China and some regional actors cautiously endorse it as a step toward stability. However, without inclusive participation, the elections are unlikely to gain meaningful legitimacy abroad.
In practice, the analysts said, this is less a move toward democracy than an effort to reset the political clock and cement military dominance under an electoral façade. The junta will likely consolidate its grip while using the elections to claim domestic and international legitimacy.
Meanwhile, they think that the resistance groups will intensify their opposition, potentially deepening Myanmar’s ongoing civil war. Unless there is coordinated pressure from the international community and unified opposition forces, Myanmar’s political trajectory is set to remain under the shadow of entrenched military rule, with the lifting of the state of emergency serving more as symbolism than substantive change.
