Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and volatility in global energy markets are placing renewed pressure on international soybean trade, with the effects now being felt across South Asia, particularly in Bangladesh. These developments are highlighted in the U.S. Soybean Export Council’s Market Intelligence Report for March 2026.
Analysts say that while soybean planting in the United States is expected to increase, prices continue to climb. Recently, soybean prices reached a 20-month high, driven largely by rising demand from the biofuel sector and geopolitical instability in the Middle East. According to the report, prices have surpassed $12 per bushel.
This upward trend in global markets is directly impacting import-dependent countries. China, one of the world’s largest soybean importers, has increased its purchases. However, delays in Brazil’s harvest and ongoing supply chain disruptions have added uncertainty to the market.
Impact of Middle East conflict
Experts warn that the situation in the Middle East has further complicated the outlook. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively disrupted, oil supplies have been constrained, pushing crude prices to between $110 and $116 per barrel.
The consequences extend beyond energy markets. Higher fuel costs have driven up transportation expenses for agricultural commodities, contributing to rising prices for soybean oil and other food products globally.
Risks for Bangladesh
According to the report, energy-dependent countries in South Asia are among the most vulnerable. Bangladesh has already begun implementing measures such as rationing petroleum products in response to the crisis.
In particular, liquefied natural gas imports from Qatar could face significant disruption if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz persists. This raises concerns about potential impacts on the country’s power generation and industrial sectors.
At the same time, volatility in the edible oil market is becoming increasingly evident. Reports of panic buying and stockpiling suggest that supply pressures could intensify in the near future.
Khabibur Rahman Kanchan, Bangladesh lead at the U.S. Soybean Export Council, told Channel i that Bangladesh may be somewhat insulated due to existing agreements with the United States on soybean imports.
Concerns over food security
While global soybean production remains broadly stable, output risks persist in certain regions. Dry conditions in Argentina and reduced production in Ukraine are contributing to tightening global supplies.
In Bangladesh and across South Asia, rising soybean costs are pushing up production expenses in poultry and food industries. Higher feed prices are expected to translate into increased costs for eggs, chicken, and fish.
Trade and supply chain disruptions
In Brazil, stricter sanitary regulations have led a major multinational company to temporarily halt soybean exports to China, adding further strain to global supply chains.
Meanwhile, rising shipping and container costs are placing additional financial burdens on importing nations.
What lies ahead
Analysts caution that if the situation does not stabilize soon, inflationary pressures on food and energy prices in Bangladesh and across South Asia are likely to intensify.
They emphasize the need for diversification of energy sources, strengthening supply chains, and boosting domestic production capacity.
In the current global landscape, market instability is no longer confined to distant regions. It is increasingly shaping everyday realities, from household kitchens to national power grids.
