Russia will stop supplying gas to EU nations via Ukraine on Wednesday as the transit deal between Ukraine’s Naftogaz and Russia’s Gazprom expires. This marks a historic shift in energy dynamics between Europe and Russia, ending decades of reliance on Ukraine as a critical transit route for gas supplies to Europe.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Russia’s role in profiting from the gas transit amid the war, stating that his country would not allow Russia to “earn additional billions on our blood.” He also noted that Ukraine had given the EU a year to prepare for the disruption.
The European Commission expressed confidence in the continent’s ability to cope, describing the EU gas system as “resilient and flexible.” Officials pointed to alternative supplies from liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers like Qatar and the US, as well as increased imports of piped gas from Norway. Despite the overall reduction in EU reliance
on Russian gas—down to less than 10% of total imports in 2023 from 40% in 2021—some countries remain heavily affected. Slovakia, which plays a significant role in the transit of Russian gas to Austria, Hungary, and Italy, is among the most impacted. Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia recently warned of potential disruptions, even threatening to stop electricity supplies to Ukraine. This drew sharp criticism from President Zelensky, who accused Slovakia of aiding Russia’s efforts to harm Ukraine.
Poland has stepped in to support Ukraine, offering to provide electricity if Slovakia withdraws its supply. Moldova, which relies on Russian gas for electricity through the Transnistria region, is also vulnerable. Moldovan President Maia Sandu accused Russia of “blackmail” aimed at destabilizing the country, which is under a 60-day energy state of emergency.
Although Russia will continue supplying gas to Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia through the Turk Stream pipeline, the end of Ukraine transit underscores the strategic shift in EU energy policy. European nations have worked to diversify their energy sources, with plans to replace Ukrainian transit gas through alternative routes such as the Trans-Balkan pipeline. Increased imports from Norway via Poland and supplies from Germany are also part of the EU’s contingency strategy.
The halt in gas transit symbolizes the end of an era of cheap Russian gas in Europe. While Russian President Vladimir Putin insists the EU will suffer most, European leaders argue that reducing dependency on Russian energy strengthens the bloc’s security and resilience. The EU’s proactive planning and diversification efforts are key to mitigating the impact of this significant energy shift.
