The U.S. decision to impose steep tariffs on Indian exports has triggered one of the most consequential shifts in Eurasian geopolitics in recent years.
Rather than coercing India into distancing itself from Moscow, Washington’s economic offensive has nudged New Delhi closer to both Russia and China, reviving a once-dormant trilateral axis.
The spectacle at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, where Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping publicly embraced, symbolised this recalibration.
India’s pivot is not rooted in ideology but in necessity.
Facing a 50% tariff wall that directly harms its labor-intensive industries, New Delhi is hedging by reopening diplomatic channels with Beijing and deepening energy ties with Moscow. Russia, weakened by sanctions, eagerly seeks partners, while China views India’s drift as an opportunity to showcase U.S. unreliability and advance a multipolar world order.
Together, the three represent one-third of global output, vast reserves, and nearly 40% of the world’s population, an alignment too significant to dismiss, even if fragile.
Yet this is far from a seamless alliance.
India and China remain divided by their Himalayan border, memories of the deadly 2020 Galwan clash, and Beijing’s partnership with Pakistan. India’s economy is still heavily tied to Western markets, with U.S. trade and technology access far outweighing anything Russia or China can provide. Moreover, Russia’s growing dependence on Beijing undermines its traditional role as a neutral broker between its two Asian partners, complicating the triangle.
For Washington, the tariffs have become a strategic own-goal. While intended to punish India for buying Russian oil, they have instead weakened years of U.S. effort to integrate India into the Indo-Pacific security architecture. Allies like Japan and Australia, themselves wary of American protectionism, are recalibrating as well, raising doubts about the Quad’s effectiveness.
Critics within the U.S. warn that these moves are shredding Washington’s credibility, branding America as unreliable at the very moment China pushes an alternative vision of order.
The Tianjin summit thus marks more than symbolic handshakes– it reflects a deeper shift toward strategic autonomy across Eurasia.
The China-Russia-India convergence may not evolve into a formal alliance, but it highlights the costs of coercive U.S. policy and signals a geopolitical environment where multipolarity is accelerating. Whether Washington adjusts course or entrenches this trajectory will shape the balance of power for years to come.
